Sheet 06 · Programme
Cost, schedule & ridership
What it costs, how long it takes, who will use it, and what could go wrong.
- Project
- TT-CS-CC
- Sheet
- 06
- Rev.
- A
- Date
- 2026-11
01Programme to 2040
Opening is targeted for 2040 Estimate. Most of the years until then are studies, permitting and procurement; construction itself takes about six years.
- TBMs take 2–3 years to build: the early order (2031–2033) overlaps the civil works tender so it stays off the critical path.
- Critical path: EIA → procurement → Cacilhas shaft → tunnelling → fit-out → testing.
- Programme float: 12 months (2039–2040).
02Cost
The estimated cost is 1.9 € bn Estimate at 2026 prices, within a range of €1.6–2.3 bn. It includes a margin of about 25% for risk, usual at this stage of study.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Twin tunnels (2 × 2.3 km) | 0.70 Estimate |
| Two deep stations | 0.45 Estimate |
| Systems, track, signalling, rolling stock and depot | 0.29 Estimate |
| Design, land and supervision | 0.10 Estimate |
| Subtotal | 1.54 Estimate |
| Risk contingency (~25%) | 0.39 Estimate |
| Total | 1.93 Estimate |
Basis: unit costs for urban river-crossing tunnels (~€0.3 bn/km per pair of bores) and deep stations in soft ground. Excludes VAT, future inflation and financing costs. Possible funding: State Budget, EU cohesion funds and the CEF facility, and the European Investment Bank.
03Ridership
We forecast about 75,000 passengers a day Estimate in 2045. For comparison, the whole Lisbon metro network carried 176,727,28410 passengers in 2024.
For today’s ferry users, the average saving is about 13 minutes per trip Estimate: a shorter crossing and much less waiting.
| Segment | Passengers/day |
|---|---|
| Current Cacilhas–Cais do Sodré ferry users | ≈ 15,000 Estimate |
| Shift from the 25 de Abril bridge corridor (car and bus) | ≈ 35,000 Estimate |
| Metro Sul do Tejo feeder trips and induced demand | ≈ 25,000 Estimate |
- Journey time: ferry (10 min7) + average wait ≈ 8 min (departures every 15–20 min7); metro 3 min Estimate + average wait ≈ 1.5 min.
- Peak-hour load ≈ 9,000 pphpd Estimate against an opening capacity of 20,000 pphpd Estimate: headroom for growth without new works.
- The shift from the bridge corridor is the weakest estimate: it has no published source and depends on fares, parking and Metro Sul do Tejo service. The 60–90k passengers-a-day range mostly reflects this uncertainty.
- Forecast to be refined with the metropolitan demand model in the study phase (2027–2029).
04Comparable projects
| Project | Type | Length | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marmaray (Istambul) | Immersed rail tube | 1,387 m18 | Down to ~60 m18 below sea level, in a seismic zone |
| Fehmarnbelt (DK–DE) | Immersed road-rail tube | 17.6 km19 | Budget 7.4 € bn19 (2015 prices) |
| Øresund (DK–SE) | Immersed road-rail tube | 4 km20 | Part of a bridge–island–tunnel link |
| Túnel do Tejo | Twin bored metro tunnels | 2,300 m Estimate | 1.9 € bn Estimate |
Indicative comparison: the projects differ in type, length, use and date, and cost per kilometre is not directly comparable.
05Programme risks
| Risk | Possible delay | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| EIA delay or challenge | 9 months Estimate | Early consultation and well-documented alternatives |
| Adverse ground conditions | 6 months Estimate | Extensive ground investigation; mixed-face TBM |
| Failed or challenged tender | 6 months Estimate | Early market engagement; balanced lots |
| Archaeological finds | 4 months Estimate | Survey in 2033–2034, before the walls |
Risk-adjusted range
If all of the risks above occurred together (25 months), the 12-month float would not be enough. So we state an honest range: opening in 2040 in the central case (P50) and by late 2041 in the adverse case (P90).